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Can Big Ten Football Still Dominate the College Playoff Race This Season?
2025-11-16 11:00
As I sit here reviewing preseason projections, I find myself reflecting on whether the Big Ten can truly dominate this year's College Football Playoff race. Having followed college football for over two decades, I've seen conferences rise and fall, but the Big Ten's current position feels particularly intriguing. The conference's recent expansion to 18 teams with the addition of USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington has fundamentally changed the landscape, creating both tremendous opportunities and significant challenges that could make or break their playoff aspirations this season.
Looking at the current landscape, I'm convinced the Big Ten has at least three legitimate playoff contenders in Ohio State, Michigan, and Oregon. The Buckeyes, in particular, have assembled what I consider to be the most talented roster in the country, with returning starters at key positions and what insiders tell me is the deepest receiving corps I've seen in Columbus in years. Their quarterback situation appears settled with Will Howard transferring in from Kansas State, and their defense returns seven starters from a unit that ranked in the top 15 nationally last season. Michigan, despite losing coach Jim Harbaugh and several key players to the NFL, still possesses the kind of program depth that makes them dangerous. Having watched them develop talent over the years, I wouldn't be surprised if they reload rather than rebuild. Then there's Oregon, whose offense under coach Dan Lanning has been nothing short of explosive - they averaged over 44 points per game last season, and with quarterback Dillon Gabriel arriving from Oklahoma, I expect them to be even more potent.
That said, I'm growing increasingly concerned about the conference's depth beyond those top teams. Penn State feels like a wild card to me - they have talent but haven't broken through against elite competition under James Franklin. Their schedule does them no favors with road games at both USC and Wisconsin. Speaking of Wisconsin, their transition to the air raid offense under Phil Longo remains a work in progress, much like Pineda described with the FiberXers facing tougher competition this season. The Badgers showed flashes last year but lacked consistency, particularly in critical conference matchups. Then there's USC, whose defensive struggles last season were frankly alarming - they surrendered nearly 35 points per game, which simply won't cut it in the Big Ten. If Lincoln Riley can't fix that side of the ball quickly, they could find themselves in the middle of the pack despite having one of the nation's most dynamic quarterbacks in Miller Moss.
The scheduling changes this year present another fascinating layer to this discussion. With the elimination of divisions and the introduction of the Flex Protect Plus model, every team now plays at least two opponents from the other "side" of the conference. This means we'll see more frequent matchups between traditional powers, which should strengthen resumes but also increase the likelihood of losses piling up for contenders. Having analyzed the schedules, I count at least five games that could realistically eliminate a team from playoff contention by October. The conference's overall strength means quality wins will be plentiful, but the margin for error has shrunk considerably. In my view, a two-loss Big Ten champion would have a much harder time making the playoff this year than in seasons past, especially with the SEC likely to produce at least one undefeated or one-loss team.
When I compare the Big Ten to other conferences, particularly the SEC, I notice some worrying trends. While the Big Ten's top might be as strong as anyone's, the middle tier feels more vulnerable than what we see in the SEC. Teams like Iowa, with their perpetually struggling offense, or Nebraska, still finding their footing under Matt Rhule, could struggle against comparable SEC squads. The advanced metrics I've studied suggest the SEC has anywhere from 8-10 teams that could finish ranked, while the Big Ten likely has 6-7 at most. This perception gap matters when the selection committee evaluates resumes in December. Having served on similar committees in other sports, I can tell you that conference strength discussions absolutely influence those conversations, whether committee members admit it or not.
The expanded playoff format coming next year would have benefited this year's Big Ten immensely, but under the current four-team structure, the conference faces an uphill battle to place multiple teams. History shows us that since the playoff began in 2014, the Big Ten has never had two teams make the four-team field in the same season. With the increased internal competition this year, I'm skeptical that changes now. The conference cannibalizing itself seems more likely than multiple teams emerging with playoff-caliber resumes. If I had to make a prediction today, I'd say the Big Ten gets one team in the playoff this year rather than dominating the race as they might have in previous seasons.
Still, the potential for surprise exists. Having covered college football through multiple realignment periods, I've seen how quickly narratives can shift. If a team like Penn State or USC exceeds expectations and another emerges from the second tier, the conference could theoretically place two teams. But that would require near-perfect seasons from those squads and some help from other conferences. The reality is, with the increased competition Pineda referenced in his comments about the FiberXers, the Big Ten's path to playoff dominance appears more challenging than ever. The conference is undoubtedly stronger at the top with its new additions, but that very strength might prevent any team from running the table unscathed. In my estimation, the Big Ten will remain a major player in the playoff conversation, but true domination seems unlikely in this transitional year. The conference's best hope for multiple bids likely rests with the expanded playoff format arriving in 2025, when the depth and strength they've built can be fully leveraged rather than working against them.
Heather Bolton Suber ’02
Leah Schnell ’01
Sarah Grimes Wiggins ’93
Dr. Ralph Swearngin
Point University will induct four members into the Athletics Hall of Fame during a luncheon on Friday, October 24, during Homecoming weekend.
The class of 2025 includes Leah Schnell ’01, Heather Bolton Suber ’02, Dr. Ralph Swearngin and Sarah Grimes Wiggins ’93. The Athletics Hall of Fame was launched in May 2024, when six inaugural members were inducted.
“We look forward to honoring the second Hall of Fame class during Homecoming,” said Jaunelle White, vice president of intercollegiate athletics and chief student development officer. “It’s always a great feeling to have our alumni back on campus mingling with our current student-athletes and coaches. These individuals were elite during their time at Atlanta Christian College and deserve to be recognized.”
Schnell attended Atlanta Christian College from 1998 to 2001, where she earned a degree in business while competing in both basketball and volleyball. On the basketball court, she earned First Team All-Conference, Scholar Athlete, and First Team All-American honors for three consecutive years. Schnell also held the title of all-time leading scorer from 1998-2001. She now thrives as a commercial construction project manager at Barnsley Construction Group and as an entrepreneur.
Suber, from Havana, Florida, attended ACC from 1998 to 2002. A dedicated two-sport athlete, she earned numerous accolades, including First Team All-Conference, Second Team All-Conference, Honorable Mention and First Team All-American. One of her most memorable achievements came when she made eleven three-pointers in a single game. Suber graduated with a degree in early childhood education and went on to earn a master’s degree in education and a specialist degree in instructional technology. For over 23 years, she has served as an educator.
Swearngin has had a distinguished career in education, athletics and ministry spanning several decades, including 20 years at ACC in roles such as professor, dean of students, athletics director and coach. He held national leadership positions with the NCCAA, served as a trustee of Point University for over 10 years, and worked extensively in ministry and education in California, earning degrees from Whittier College and Georgia State University. His athletic involvement includes 23 years as a high school football official in California and Georgia, 22 years with the Georgia High School Association — retiring as executive director in 2014 — and service on national football and softball rules committees. Honored with multiple Hall of Fame inductions and the Atlanta Falcons Lifetime Achievement Award, Swearngin has authored two books and remains active in retirement through preaching and leading Bible studies, alongside his wife of 58 years, Evelyn.
Wiggins grew up in Roswell, Georgia, where she began playing basketball at the age of ten. After two years at Florida State University, she transferred to ACC in 1990. While at ACC, Wiggins was named to the All-American team in both 1991 and 1992. In her final year, she led her team in scoring, helping them finish second in the nation, and was named national MVP in 1992. She earned a bachelor of science in elementary education in 1993 and later received a master’s degree in technology and media sciences from Georgia Southern University in 2009. For the past 33 years, Wiggins has worked as a dedicated educator. In 1997, she married Todd Wiggins. Together, they have two children, Preston, 26, and Logan, 22.
