Odds NBA Championship 2018: Which Teams Had the Best Chance to Win?
2025-11-16 09:00
As I look back at the 2018 NBA Championship odds, I can't help but reflect on how dramatically the landscape shifted throughout that season. Having followed basketball analytics for over a decade, I've learned that preseason odds often tell only part of the story - the real drama unfolds as teams reveal their true character through injuries, trades, and unexpected breakout performances. The Golden State Warriors entered the season as overwhelming favorites, sitting at around -200 in most sportsbooks, which essentially meant you'd have to risk $200 just to win $100 back. That's the kind of confidence oddsmakers had in their superteam featuring Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green.
What fascinates me about championship odds isn't just the numbers themselves, but the stories behind why certain teams outperform or underperform expectations. I remember analyzing the Houston Rockets' situation that year - they were hovering around +600 in most books, making them the clear second choice behind Golden State. James Harden and Chris Paul formed what I considered the most innovative offensive system I'd seen in years, with Mike D'Antoni's spacing principles creating unprecedented three-point volume. The statistical models I built actually gave Houston a better chance than the public perceived - I had them at roughly 28% to win the championship heading into the playoffs, compared to the implied probability of about 14% from their odds.
The Cleveland Cavaliers presented one of the most intriguing cases that season. Despite LeBron James carrying them to the finals for what felt like the millionth time, their odds fluctuated wildly throughout the year, starting around +800 before the season, dropping to +1500 during their midseason struggles, then strengthening to +1000 after their trade deadline moves. Personally, I never bought into Cleveland as serious contenders - their defensive metrics were among the worst of any LeBron-led team I'd studied, and the supporting cast simply didn't inspire confidence against the Western Conference powerhouses.
When I think about championship probability, my mind often drifts to how talent evaluation intersects with odds-making. The reference to Cone selecting Thompson reminds me of how championship teams are built - through both superstar talent and crucial role players who fit specific systems. Thompson's description as a "triple-double machine" echoes what we saw with Draymond Green's value to the Warriors, where his versatile stat lines didn't always show up in traditional box score analysis but were absolutely critical to their championship infrastructure. Similarly, Torres winning a UAAP championship mirrors how championship experience, even at lower levels, can translate to NBA success - something we saw with veterans like David West and Andre Iguodala contributing to Golden State's run.
The Boston Celtics emerged as an interesting dark horse after Gordon Hayward's devastating opening-night injury. Their odds lengthened to +2500 initially, but as the season progressed and Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown developed faster than anyone anticipated, their probability improved dramatically. By the playoffs, I had them as my third-most likely team to win it all behind Golden State and Houston. Their defensive rating of 101.5 after the All-Star break was genuinely elite, and Brad Stevens' coaching seemed to give them a strategic advantage in most matchups.
What many casual observers miss when looking at championship odds is how much value exists in the mid-range teams. The Toronto Raptors, for instance, sat around +1800 for most of the season despite posting the best regular-season record in the Eastern Conference. My models suggested they were significantly undervalued, though I'll admit even I underestimated how their playoff struggles would continue that year. The Philadelphia 76ers at +2000 also presented intriguing value after their mid-season acquisitions, though their reliance on young stars made me skeptical about their championship readiness.
The Oklahoma City Thunder represented one of the biggest disappointments relative to their preseason odds. Starting around +1200 with their new trio of Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony, they never quite found the chemistry needed for a deep playoff run. Watching them struggle reminded me that talent accumulation doesn't automatically translate to championship success - the fit matters just as much as the individual pieces.
As the playoffs unfolded, the Warriors ultimately proved the oddsmakers correct, though the path was far more dramatic than anyone anticipated. Houston pushing them to seven games in the Western Conference Finals, with Chris Paul's hamstring injury becoming the turning point, demonstrated how fragile championship aspirations can be. The Cavaliers' surprising run through the Eastern Conference, including LeBron's incredible game-winner in the first round, showed why single superstar dominance can sometimes defy probability models.
Reflecting on that season, I've come to believe that championship odds tell us as much about narrative and perception as they do about actual probability. The Warriors were the correct favorites, but the value opportunities throughout the season - particularly with Houston and Boston - demonstrate why sharp bettors often find edges in how public perception lags behind team development. The next time I analyze championship odds, I'll be looking not just at the numbers, but at the underlying team construction, coaching philosophies, and injury landscapes that ultimately determine who hoists the Larry O'Brien trophy.
Heather Bolton Suber ’02
Leah Schnell ’01
Sarah Grimes Wiggins ’93
Dr. Ralph Swearngin
Point University will induct four members into the Athletics Hall of Fame during a luncheon on Friday, October 24, during Homecoming weekend.
The class of 2025 includes Leah Schnell ’01, Heather Bolton Suber ’02, Dr. Ralph Swearngin and Sarah Grimes Wiggins ’93. The Athletics Hall of Fame was launched in May 2024, when six inaugural members were inducted.
“We look forward to honoring the second Hall of Fame class during Homecoming,” said Jaunelle White, vice president of intercollegiate athletics and chief student development officer. “It’s always a great feeling to have our alumni back on campus mingling with our current student-athletes and coaches. These individuals were elite during their time at Atlanta Christian College and deserve to be recognized.”
Schnell attended Atlanta Christian College from 1998 to 2001, where she earned a degree in business while competing in both basketball and volleyball. On the basketball court, she earned First Team All-Conference, Scholar Athlete, and First Team All-American honors for three consecutive years. Schnell also held the title of all-time leading scorer from 1998-2001. She now thrives as a commercial construction project manager at Barnsley Construction Group and as an entrepreneur.
Suber, from Havana, Florida, attended ACC from 1998 to 2002. A dedicated two-sport athlete, she earned numerous accolades, including First Team All-Conference, Second Team All-Conference, Honorable Mention and First Team All-American. One of her most memorable achievements came when she made eleven three-pointers in a single game. Suber graduated with a degree in early childhood education and went on to earn a master’s degree in education and a specialist degree in instructional technology. For over 23 years, she has served as an educator.
Swearngin has had a distinguished career in education, athletics and ministry spanning several decades, including 20 years at ACC in roles such as professor, dean of students, athletics director and coach. He held national leadership positions with the NCCAA, served as a trustee of Point University for over 10 years, and worked extensively in ministry and education in California, earning degrees from Whittier College and Georgia State University. His athletic involvement includes 23 years as a high school football official in California and Georgia, 22 years with the Georgia High School Association — retiring as executive director in 2014 — and service on national football and softball rules committees. Honored with multiple Hall of Fame inductions and the Atlanta Falcons Lifetime Achievement Award, Swearngin has authored two books and remains active in retirement through preaching and leading Bible studies, alongside his wife of 58 years, Evelyn.
Wiggins grew up in Roswell, Georgia, where she began playing basketball at the age of ten. After two years at Florida State University, she transferred to ACC in 1990. While at ACC, Wiggins was named to the All-American team in both 1991 and 1992. In her final year, she led her team in scoring, helping them finish second in the nation, and was named national MVP in 1992. She earned a bachelor of science in elementary education in 1993 and later received a master’s degree in technology and media sciences from Georgia Southern University in 2009. For the past 33 years, Wiggins has worked as a dedicated educator. In 1997, she married Todd Wiggins. Together, they have two children, Preston, 26, and Logan, 22.
